Heat pump markets across Canada, region by region

The national backdrop

Federal money still matters, but in October 2026 it is in transition. The Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program stopped taking federal applications on 2026-07-31 in Alberta, Manitoba, the Northwest Territories, Quebec and Saskatchewan, according to NRCan's status page, and is moving to Environment and Climate Change Canada. Approved homeowners have until 2027-01-31 to file final receipts.

Two newer federal streams are shaping 2027 demand. The Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program funds no-cost retrofits through provincial partners in Manitoba, BC, Quebec, Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador. The National Heat Pump Rebate, is not yet open; Hydro-Québec's program page says it arrives in 2027.

West Coast

British Columbia is a two-climate province for heat pumps. The mild, wet southwest coast suits air source systems almost all year, while the Interior and the North face long, cold seasons that make sizing and backup heat central to every quote. Natural gas and electricity split most homes between them.

The province's income-qualified Energy Savings Program changed its rules for invoices dated on or after 2026-07-06, which is the single biggest marketing issue for BC installers this year. Read the British Columbia page.

Prairies

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba share long, hard winters, but their markets behave differently. Alberta and Saskatchewan are dominated by natural gas heat, so most heat pump sales there are cold-climate or dual-fuel add-ons rather than full conversions. Manitoba has a much larger electric-heat share and an active provincial administrator.

• Alberta: gas country, Chinook swings, municipal property-tax financing in some towns.
• Saskatchewan: long, very cold winters, three in four homes on gas, and a utility rebate aimed at furnaces and boilers.
• Manitoba: Efficiency Manitoba rebates and a supplier bonus for heat-load calculations running to 2027-03-31.

Central Canada

Ontario and Quebec are the two largest heat pump markets by volume, and they could hardly be more different. Ontario is a gas-heated province where rebates are tied to the existing fuel and a participating contractor list. Quebec is overwhelmingly electric, and Hydro-Québec's LogisVert program pays by the size of the unit.

Read the Ontario page and the Quebec page.

Atlantic Canada

The four Atlantic provinces have the country's highest heat pump adoption, and oil heat is still common. That makes conversions, ductless systems and whole-home replacements the core of the market. It also means the end of federal oil-to-heat-pump funding hits these installers hardest.

• New Brunswick: advance-payment deadlines run to 2027-03-31.
• Nova Scotia: provincial rebates are for new heat pumps only, not replacements.
• Prince Edward Island: free heat pump intake and equipment rebates have both closed.
• Newfoundland and Labrador: the takeCHARGE oil-to-electric incentive is still open on a budget basis.

The North

Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut are small, very cold markets where the grid itself is often the constraint. Yukon's newest rebates reward heat pumps installed with a non-electric backup, and Nunavut, with no integrated grid, is outside federal heat pump grants. See the territories page.

How we use this map

Before any campaign starts, we check which programs a customer in your service area can actually use, then build pages and ads around that offer. Our program landing pages carry as-of dates and links to the administrator, and our Google Ads work pauses or changes message when a program closes. To see what that costs, read pricing, or call, text or email to talk through your region.